It’s hard to be calm when it’s June and you still have crop to plant, but that’s just what we have to do. It doesn't matter if you have your crops in or still have stuff to plant, there’s a lot to get your head around in the next few days. I have asked a few ex-perts to help figure it all out, but first a little context on what’s got us in the present situation.

I pulled off weather map from AAFC’s drought watch website that shows precipitation compared to normal for the months of April - May 2010. It shows most of southern and central Alberta is in the 90th to 100th percentile which means these past two months we have had more precipitation than 90 % + of the values ever recorded for this period. If you live in the Medicine Hat area, east central Alberta or most of Saskatchewan (the dark purple area), then the accumulated precipitation for this period is higher than any value they have on record. So, we have been trying to work around record moisture during our most critical seeding time. Of particular challenge is the timing of the last storm which will push seeding well into June and leaves us vulnerable to more rain, which unfortunately is very likely to come. Some forecasters are expecting another couple of lows to move through Alberta later this week and possibly later next week. These systems should be further to the east and not be as organized, hopefully they will miss your farm.

As for the present scenario, I talked to Rob Dunn from Alberta Agriculture. Rob said “If you have your crop in, you may be pleasantly surprised in the next week or two as long as we don’t get too much more rain. If we can get a little heat to develop the crop, things could look a lot better in two weeks. You may have only been able to seed 70-80% of the field, but that 70-80% of the field will yield way better than average is his guess.

I asked Rob about what to watch for, and he did have some concerns. He says soil crusting may be a problem in some fields as well as rooting issues and de-nitrification. Depending on temperatures, we may have some root rot or spot blotch as well. Seeds most vulnerable will be those that have germinated to the 1 leaf stage. It’s going to take a week to ten days to see what the issues are, but his hunch is that overall we should be okay. In the meantime you could be draining low spots, securing seed, and checking out crop insurance options.

If you still have seeding to do, alternatives are narrowing down. I listed the growing degree days to the left to give you a relative idea of what kind of heat is needed to grow each crop. It’s late for wheat, mustard, any type of peas, but barley, polish canola, and winter wheat are options. Rob also suggested certain types of Sudan grass, a forage crop, as a possibility, but from a marketing perspective I don’t think there will be any shortages of forages this year unless you need it for your own use.

I also talked to Susan Heather, an agronomist with Viterra in Vulcan, who reminds us that flea beetle protection on seeded canola (14-21 day max protection) may be getting short. If it warms up, the beetles will be out again, and after the canola. As far as fertility loss, she doesn't feel it will be an issue in her area but something to keep an eye on. See you all next week!